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Predictions for 2008, #3: Semantic apps will continue to suck

Well, “suck” is probably too strong a work. How about “Semantic apps will continue to be completely irrelevant?”

2007 was a year heavy on buzz around so-called next generation, 3.0, semantic apps - things like PowerSet & Hakia (natural language search), Spock (people search), Twine (who knows), and so on.

Well, after a year of anticipation, each is either unlaunched (powerset), unloved (spock is weak), or unheard of (twine).

Consider the value propositions:

Spock promised powerful people search, and so far has delivered a (drum roll)… social network scraper. See “idiocy writ large” for reference.
Next gen search engines promised better results than google and so far have delivered… junk. See my off the cuff Hakia vs. Google comparo for reference.
Apps like Twine promise to automate the discovery of relationships between your disparate bits of information - but if you listen to the video there’s a lot of buzzwords (semantic graph! open! graph! wikis! ontologies!) and little substance (its got smarts!) beyond keyword parsing.

…so my prediction is that Google will continue to kick ass, the so-called next-gen startups will continue to languish or sit or beta-purgatory, and slowly the concept of “semantic” will fade from the public eye as VC’s find something else to latch onto.

(Quick update: Twine has also committed what I consider to be the cardinal sin of marketing plans - attempting to create their own vernacular, i.e.: in scoble’s video above one “twines” a link, and creates a “twine” about something - arggh. Its as bad as the now defunct Teqlo)

2008, google, hakia, powerset, predictions, semantic, spock, twine web3.0

Spock: Idiocy Writ Large

Well, well. According to Wired, hype-heavy people search engine Spock thinks people that write about pedophiles are pedophiles themselves, and isn’t afraid to share that knowledge with the world.

Jaideep Singh responded to Wired:

CEO Jaideep Singh claims Spock is no different than Google, indexing and aggregating information already available elsewhere on the web. Spock spiders major social networks and public sites, culling text and photos and adding descriptive tags to build your profile. If you’ve got a page on MySpace, Hi5, Friendster or Wikipedia, odds are good you’ve also got one in Spock’s 100-million-profile database. [from Wired]

Umm, no, halfwit. Google associates information with WEBPAGES. Spock associates information with PEOPLE. Those two things are different - in the latter case, mistakes are known as “libel.”

From the get go, Spock has reeked to me of dot com bubble. Hype, hype, hype. A technology that people don’t really seem to be clamoring for. Frat boy, misogynistic office environment. And now this: a technology that sucks, and stupid, deceitful means of driving adoption and collecting data (the “Mad Libs” app that Wired talks about). Back in the good old days, all of these clowns would have been consultants somewhere and at least inflicted themselves on clients only, instead of the the 100 million victims Spock has “indexed.”

google, idiocy spock

I’m not so sure about Spock: The next Riya?

TechCrunch’s Nick G. sums things up well:

Spock is certainly fun, and encourages user interaction by adding and voting on descriptive tags. It could easily become a definitive source of information about people. It will, however, likely take a massive number of page views to properly monetize the product - people searches do not generate the kind of advertising rates that ecommerce and other searches command. [from TechCrunch]

That’s it in a nutshell. Its fun, in a curiosity sort of way. In a click-around-for-a-minute-and-see-if-I’m-in-there sort of way. In a “not likely to return” sort of way. Spock may have all sorts of interesting semantic technology under the hood, but to me, its the next Riya: a cool technology flailing around for a need to serve. As Riya demonstrated, cool tech doesn’t even guarantee you an IP acquisition if it doesn’t serve some fundamental need.

And there’s the problem. It seems to me that people search is a fundamentally niche market. While 30% of search volume may be people related, how much of that volume is monetizeable, and does Spock add enough marginal value to grab any of it? People search has a number of unique characteristics that make it less suited to a vertical, than say, gadget searching - consider some of the basic use cases:

Vanity Search: Spock may provide an adequate solution for “vanity searches” (searching for yourself), but (a) how much marginal benefit does it provide over Google, and (b) how monetizeable is it?
Mainstream Culture Searches: What’s new with Britney? People apparently care. But Spock isn’t a news portal, or a gossip blog like TMZ or whathaveyou. Anyone searching for “Britney” likely knows here bio inside out already; I don’t see Spock having much marginal benefit here.
Finding People for Social or Business Networking: LinkedIn & Facebook & MySpace, etc: Is Spock aiming to compete with these juggernauts? Actually, judging from the descriptions of social networking features on Spock, it seems that they are. To me, this seems like a tacit admission that the core proposition of people search lacks significant marginal value over and above Google or Yahoo; “now with social networking” often seems like a desperation garnish added to jazz up a concept that lacks merit in and of itself.

So - from my lofty perch, I look down and see Spock as floundering out of the gate. A “definitive source of information about people” - is this something that folks are clamoring for? A way to get in touch with people - certainly (see: Facebook). A way to find people’s websites - Ok (see: Google). A way to find news about people - fine (see: blog search). Is there any value to be gained by aggregating these together into a definitive source? To me: doubtful. The tacked on social networking features & questionable widgets (I can write my own bio, thanks) reinforce this feeling.

A cool technology demo != a sustainable business.

google, people search, spock technorati