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Predictions for 2008, #2: Yahoo! Resurgent

Yesterday kicked off my post-Christmas blogging with my first 2008 prediction - that BoingBoing would continue its devolution into a Cory Doctorow bookstore and link farm for BBGadgets.

One thing I didn’t want to continue with Prediction #2 is the tendency to forecast doom and gloom. Its really easy to pick out organizations that are stumbling and place a bet on their demise, and a lot of predictions lists read like a gleeful financial Grim Reaper’s shopping list.

So what are the bright lights for 2008? Believe it or not, I’d like to imagine that one of them is Yahoo. I know this is probably pushing the bounds of credibility, but for what its worth, I think the impact from the removal of Terry Semel will take years to really percolate down through Yahoo’s silo’d organization - and that 2008 will be the year when meaningful change can really take place.

1. Positve: Yahoo’s ditched Semel. Since starting at Yahoo in 2001, Wikipedia claims Semel has made off with $500 million. $500 MILLION. During which time Yahoo has stumbled, stagnated, hemorrhaged management talent, and generally fallen apart. Semel apparently managed to impart zero vision and leadership to the organization.
2. Negative: The management exodus will hurt for a while (Rachel Glaser, Scott Gatz, Neil Budde, Cameron Marlow, Andy Baio, etc.). That’s a lot of knowledge equity and relationship-power to have walk out of your company, and each troubled departure leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those left behind.
3. Positive: Yahoo’s till a traffic bull.
4. Positive: Yahoo has lots of great properties - Flickr, Upcoming, Del.icio.us, Yahoo Mail, etc. - a little vision could combine traffic & properties into a spectacular social-networked experience. Yahoo also has a powerful international presence.
5. Negative: Yahoo still doesn’t seem able to execute on anything. The peanut butter manifesto has faded from the radar, and Jerry Yang’s 12 months of change must be close to over by now - with little material difference to Yahoo’s properties. Is it a product of management flight? Or has execution been delayed while management is reorganized post-Semel?

So: ultimately, by my estimation, Yahoo has the traffic and basic building blocks to return to Internet stardom. The chief thing holding Yahoo back has been management structure and leadership - and I’d like to think that 2008 will be the year that Yahoo starts to get its house in order on both accounts.

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