TechFold - Bold tech & web commentary

Whoops: MacBook Air is the Apple Foleo

Whoops, looks like Apple’s had one of its famous beautiful misses (see G4 cube for precedent). You can’t replace the battery. Is that completely insane? Is Apple expecting an $1800 - $3200 device to be disposable (or require an expensive battery replacement procedure) on a two year basis?

Thin in stature and in features, seems ideally suited to lightweight business computing on-the-go for short bursts (hence the built in battery), connecting via WiFi or cellphone/bluetooth - which, correct me if I’m wrong, was the use-case described for the ill-fated Palm Foleo.

UPDATE: The more I read, the more appalling this exercise in fashionista-baiting becomes.

air, apple, foleo macbook

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Predictions for 2008, #4: Apple & iTunes Stumbles

Continuing my series of predictions for 2008 (also see number one, and number two, about boingboing and yahoo respectively, and number three about semantic apps): to balance out Yahoo’s prophesized resurgence, someone must fall - and I think Apple’s due.

Actually, this is two predictions in one: firstly, DRM will continue to wither, and the sale of naked MP3’s will continue to take off. From this follows my second prediction - that iTMS (iTunes Music Store) will stumble in sales growth numbers as the DRM-less revolution Apple kicked off allows competitors to sell into the iPod ecosystem for the first time.

The end of DRM’d music is a great boon for consumers, who now have legal options for high-quality, downloadable music that plays anywhere. Indeed, the downloadable music sector as a whole will continue grow (and CD’s will continue to gather dust on store shelves), but I’ll bet that Apple’s iTMS growth will underperform the industry - i.e.: new competitors like Amazon will get get a non-zero slice of marketshare for the first time.

That’s how I know Apple really loves consumers: they’re willing to break down their own ludicrously profitable walls for the betterment of the overall consumer experience. (see: Steve’s open letter)

2008, apple, drm predictions

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Live Segway Polo with Steve Wozniak

This reminds me of an episode of Happy Days where the Fonz goes waterskiing.

I suppose everyone’s entitled to their goofy pursuits, and if you have the wherewithal to do so, why not. I can’t help but thinking, however, that a once proud creator has lost some of his dignity when this and gps dog collars are the news he now makes.

Yeesh. Check out Woz.org for some shots of Wozniak with Steve Jobs and a bunch of miscellaneous fawning claptrap like “Dear Woz, When you call Apple to order stuff and you give them your name, do people recognize you and say ‘Hey, your that dude that created Apple!’“

apple, polo, segway wozniak

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The Unbearable Pain of Competing with Apple: Samsung’s Sad Christmas Tale

Yesterday, I tried to not buy an iPod.

Specifically, I tried to buy a Samsung “P2″ - 4gb, touchscreen, bluetooth, video, music. I looks sweet, has a great UI, is tiny and slim, and hits an awesome price point at $149 - perfect for Christmas gift giving.

Sadly, Samsung is not Apple. Let us count the ways in which Samsung fucked screwed up and put an iPod in my wife’s stocking…

1. STOCK: Christmas is the make-or-break retail season for consumer electronics. Yesterday, I went to five retail stores: two Futureshops, one Best Buy, one London Drugs, and even Zellers. Each store (except Zellers, which apparently doesn’t carry MP3 players over $50) had a full array of iPods in their full spectrum of prices and capacities. They were flying off the shelves, and the staff kept on carrying out more from the back. Samsung? Not one. Anywhere. In the ENTIRE CITY. Someone at a Futureshop told me they were on backorder from the manufacturer. How do you let your retail distribution network run out of stock two weeks before Christmas??! Are you kidding? Nope. The Futureshop that told me about the backorder didn’t expect any until January.
2. PRICING: Every staff member at every store new the iPod product line inside and out, and knew exactly how each was priced. Each store had identical pricing for each item - my expectations were consistently met. For the Samsung P2, I saw $149, $169, $179, and $219. That’s almost a 50% spread on price. Talk about sowing confusion and alienating customers…
3. POSITIONING: Obviously, every store had the iPod’s front and center. OK, makes sense. But the Samsung’s weren’t just out of the way - they were generally dirty, unplugged and battery drained, mislabeled, and generally disheveled. Does Samsung not have a freaking Retail Merchandiser in Winnipeg? The city draws a shopping population of over 1,000,000 people, the majority of who probably get their consumer electronics from under 30 retail locations. Why doesn’t Samsung have someone out there doing the rounds every day to ensure product condition, correct information, pricing, etc.? I know PEPSI does it on a weekly basis, sending reps around to 7-11’s and other retail channels. Why can’t Samsung?
4. EDUCATION: That same merchandiser should be educating holiday staff at the retail outlets as to the product names and features. Most staff that I spoke too seemed surprised that the product existed, and when I pointed to the demo model reacted as if they’d never seen one before. Insanity.

The moral of the story? Apple has it together. Total value chain management. Prescient inventory loading of their retail partners. Flawless execution. Samsung doesn’t even appear to be making an effort. Is it any wonder Apple dominates?

The other moral: Samsung needs to get a clue.

apple, bestbuy, christmas, futureshop, ipod, samsung shopping

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The Phone Rings for Thee: Google to announce Monday?

The WSJ is reporting that Google is set to announce its GPhone plans Monday (Nov. 5), announcing partnerships with T-Mob and Sprint initially. God willing, that will push bloody Facebook and OpenSocial off of TechMeme for a few days.

So - what does a GPhone mean to me?

Familiar Business Model: I’m assuming that the GPhone will be a mobile OS built by Google, deployed on hardware built by others, serviced by multiple carriers, supported by localized advertising of some kind. That layout seems like a natural fit for Google: its got a familiar business plan, a familiar ethic (open platform!), and forwards the mission of organizing all of the world’s data, an increasing amount of which, in the form of call records, contact data, videos, and photos is tied up in mobile devices. Hell, if you think about it, its an near mirror of the desktop world: Google writes apps and services, deployed on hardware by multiple vendors (every desktop and laptop ever made), supported by ISP’s.

Optimized for the Cloud: IMHO this is where Google will really differentiate. If the OS provides a well-conceived conduit into Google’s cloud, it will be golden. I want to…

1. Access my mobile voicemail through GMail online.
2. See my call history online.
3. Be able to make voice calls online and see that history on my mobile.
4. Have a single online/mobile contact infoset.
5. Save & load pictures and video too and from a GDrive storage cloud automatically.
6. Enjoy true calendar integration - i.e.: if a GCal event is set with an alarm 15 minutes before, I want my phone to ring with a reminder, wherever I am.
7. A full suite of API’s and mobile developer tools to spur development and innovation on the platofrm.
8. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Apple is inching its way there with the iPhone/iTunes marriage - but its synchronization is limited to your desktop, whereas Google’s is global. Of course, Apple’s strategy is tuned to the mass market - its a model that people are familiar with, as reflected in sales. I’m guessing that Google’s geek-centric value propositions are going to see slower initial adoption, buy greater long-term penetration, even if white labeled.

Fundamentally, a single repository for your communications info, accessed through multiple channels (phone, internet) just makes sense. Google, as others have noted, is a natural fit to quarterback this combination of software, hardware, and infrastructure. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Google can pull it off.

apple, google, gphone, iphone, microsoft, sprint, tmobile wsj

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How did time confuse evolution with invention?

It bugs me that the iPhone has been voted “invention” of the year by Time magazine. To me, an invention is something that does something fundamentally new, or does something done elsewhere in a fundamentally new way.

The last time I checked, the iPhone bundles up a bunch of well-executed ideas into a nice phone that plays music and browses the Internet in a uniquely Apple way. Nothing it does is “new” though - and though it may push the industry as a whole to rethink their offerings, its still evolutionary. A light bulb 2.0 is still a light bulb, invented by Thomas Edison, even if its red, shatter proof, lasts 10x longer, and leased for a monthly fee instead of bought outright. Was the first laptop considered an “invention?” Or just a different type of something that existed already - the personal computer?

IMHO, Time is confusing media frenzy with true creativity. Apple, for all their greatness, IMHO is best at creatively refining existing products or categories - not “inventing” new ones.

apple, inventions, iphone, time time magazine

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Unintended Consequences: The commoditization of music

One thing that I can’t help but think as I see the sudden rush to sell unprotected MP3’s is that music will become commoditized: that is to say, competition between stores can only be on price at any given quality level (given the digitally identical product offered at all).

When there’s no opportunity to differentiate a product offering, differentiation has to come from elsewhere - price being the first, easiest, and most natural source thereof.

There are some other factors - like the iTunes/iPod easy synchronization value-add - but fundamentally, a 256k/bit encoded song is a 256k/bit encoded song, wherever its downloaded from.

So - is the industry doomed to go to the retailer with the best cost structure, or the retailer willing to tolerate the lowest margins? Maybe. Expect to see some frantic “relationship building” taking place as drm-free retailers attempt to secure exclusive access to higher bitrate recordings, or specific artists or albums.

amazon, apple, drm, itunes music

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Sometimes Apple “Misses It” - the ipod calendar “add” button

Yesterday I opined that Apple “got it” - and indeed, in most ways they do.

However: Apple doesn’t acknowledge that technologically savvy early adopters can see through “Value Proposition Engineering.” Case in point: the ipod Touch, identical to the iPhone in hardware and software (phone & bluetooth excepted) cannot “add” an appointment to its calendar (despite having the software/hardware to do so), making it functionally crippled as an organizer, thus “clarifying its value proposition” vis-a-vis the iPhone.

Killing zero-cost, value-added features for the sake of brand positioning does not sit well with those in the know. So says Gizmodo, Engadget, TechWhack, TechShout, AppleTell,
iPhoneAtlas, MacUser, AppleGazette, Technovia, ack/nak, etc.

To be honest, brand-engineering like this is something General Motors would do. That’s about the biggest insult I can imagine for Apple - comparing them to an out-of-touch corporate behemoth famous for its pathetic, superficial badge & feature engineering. Lets hope this Calendar Add function is an abberation.

Of course, to the mass-market the move makes sense - as most things Apple usually do. 95% of the ipod buying public will not recognize the bald-faced chicanery behind this move; indeed, 95% of the public will probably never use the calendar at all anyway. Its just the loyal Apple-fan base and techno-savvy geek-corps who feel let down - not an uncommon sensation from Cupertino these days.

apple, calendar, iphone, ipod touch

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Apple Continues to “Get It”

Wired has an article today on how to create your own iPhone ringtones for free, which starts with this quote:

“Apple started selling iPhone ringtones for $2 apiece through its iTunes store last week, but if you aren’t afraid of a little tinkering, you can get that “Hey Ya” or “Sexy Back” ringtone without shelling out the extra bucks.” [from Wired]

What has made Apple a powerhouse is that 95% of the population is afraid of tinkering, or doesn’t have the time/knowledge [edit: or energy…] to do so. Its a question of “marginal benefit” vs. “marginal cost.” The marginal benefit from spending $1 on a ringtone is proportionate; the marginal benefit from spending however long it takes to figure out Wired’s instructions is not.

One might argue that Apple has created this circumstance artificially by wrapping a controlling software environment around the iPhone when an open one was possible. That’s your prerogative; but again, Apple is selling to the mass market who cares little for openness/accessibility, and everything for simple operation. Apple has built a money producing ecosystem around simplicity, and priced it to consumer’s expectations.

apple, iphone ringtones

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Apple vs. Sony: Why a $600 phone soars and a $600 console tanks

Jeff Nolan writes on the Sony’s PS3 debacle. IMHO, the best part of the post is Jeff’s comparison between the PS3 and the iPhone:

What I do find interesting to consider about the price point is that more than a million people shelled out $500-600 for an iPhone (plus $80-100 a month). What does that tell me? Not sure because the Apple reality distortion field makes people do things they would otherwise consider irrational (me included), but perhaps it’s that communication capabilities outweigh all others in terms of the perceived value of a device. Let’s also not forget that the iPhone is fashion, the PS3 simply isn’t. [Jeff Nolan]

Jeff identifies two good reasons for the success of the iPhone and the failure of the PS3 - value from communication, and value from fashion. I’d like to add a few other reasons as to why one $600 spend is justifiable and another isn’t:

1. Marginal Benefit: the marginal benefit of a PS3 over a PS2, for the average person, is comparatively low. A bump in graphics quality (which incurs secondary costs, see below), combined with an unresolved format-battle tie-in (Blu-ray) creates a murky “pro” list with which to justify a purchase, vs. a very clear “con” in the form of $600 for a living room entertainment device.
2. Secondary Costs: Realizing the full benefit of the PS3 requires (for many) upgrading a TV, receiver and speakers, and cabling - potentially thousands of dollars to be spent. Secondary costs quickly erode the already shaky core proposition of slightly better graphics (see Marginal Benefit above).
3. Usage Credibility: Justifying a major purchase requires some credible utility that you’ll get out of it. As Jeff pointed out for the iPhone, “communication” is perceived as such; unfortunately for Sony, living room game-playing is not.
4. Usage Frequency: Your iPhone is going to be in your pocket all day, every day, and used repeatedly in a variety of ways through-out each day. A PS3 will spend 97% of its existence in an idle state gathering dust between playing sessions while owners eat, sleep, and otherwise lead their lives.

What it all adds up to for Sony is a lesson in marketing super-premium products. Premium prices require a clear, credible value proposition that can be realized regularly.

apple, iphone, ps3 sony

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