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Predictions for 2008, #4: Apple & iTunes Stumbles

Continuing my series of predictions for 2008 (also see number one, and number two, about boingboing and yahoo respectively, and number three about semantic apps): to balance out Yahoo’s prophesized resurgence, someone must fall - and I think Apple’s due.

Actually, this is two predictions in one: firstly, DRM will continue to wither, and the sale of naked MP3’s will continue to take off. From this follows my second prediction - that iTMS (iTunes Music Store) will stumble in sales growth numbers as the DRM-less revolution Apple kicked off allows competitors to sell into the iPod ecosystem for the first time.

The end of DRM’d music is a great boon for consumers, who now have legal options for high-quality, downloadable music that plays anywhere. Indeed, the downloadable music sector as a whole will continue grow (and CD’s will continue to gather dust on store shelves), but I’ll bet that Apple’s iTMS growth will underperform the industry - i.e.: new competitors like Amazon will get get a non-zero slice of marketshare for the first time.

That’s how I know Apple really loves consumers: they’re willing to break down their own ludicrously profitable walls for the betterment of the overall consumer experience. (see: Steve’s open letter)

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