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Google’s OpenSocial: tough questions outstanding

Let’s start by summarizing Google’s “OpenSocial” API: its a Microsoft strategy. OpenSocial is targeting developers with the hope that a plethora of must-have OpenSocial apps/widgets/services will drive adoption of the member social networks.

I have some questions…

1. Will OpenSocial get adoption in the developer community? The OpenSocial union depends on developers wanting to develop apps across the properties included. Are there currently crowds of developers complaining about how difficult it is to code for both LinkedIn and Orkut? If not, will OpenSocial kickstart the developer rush? Does OpenSocial serve a real need - or a business case / marketing strategy?
2. Will the availability of widgets translate into member growth? Assuming that the developer community does take to OpenSocial, will their produce translate into new members, increased activity from existing members, both, or neither? Does anyone really understand the market dynamics of the widget economy?
3. Where’s MySpace? Or Bebo? Obviously Facebook isn’t going to be a part of this. But - the one-tonne gorilla MySpace is still going out on its own API/developer path. From where I sit, its sort of looks like a third party situation in American politics - MySpace is the Ralph Nader that’s going to screw OpenSocial’s Al Gore. If only they could run on the same ticket…

Yeah - so I’m not too bullish on OpenSocial. It strikes me as an initiative that looks good on paper - but in practice lacks the market relevance to really get traction. Mathew’s more positive, though he notes the absence of FB and MySpace. Richard is rabidly enthusiastic. Marc and Ning are obviously happy too.

So - after weighing in all of those opinions, do I still think the battle is over? Has Facebook won? Well, no - but they have a significant first mover advantage and have repeatedly shown conceptual leadership in the social networking space while others have languished.

OpenSocial isn’t combating a lack of API’s for the included services; its combating the perception the each of these services is a has-been, or is irrelevant.

That’s a big uphill battle that will need to be won with innovation and excellence - not just whiz-bang API’s.

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