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Vint Cerf + Google: TV is Dead

Vint Cerf has emerged from his Google cave to say something insightful: TV as we know it is near death. VC suggests that shows will slot into one of two usage scenarios:

1. Pre-recorded (85% of our current viewing): The TV we watch with regularity, that fill the bulk of the programming grid. LOST. History Channel documentaries. Etc. VC suggests that these are going to be iPod-ified - downloaded when desired by consumers.
2. Live News / Events / Emergency (the remaining 15%): Broadcast & Cable TV’s last stand - stuff that needs to be communicated in real time.

It makes sense. When you want a book, you go to the bookstore and purchase it; you don’t hover around the bookstore on a weekly basis to read as many pages as you can during the one-hour window the store makes it available for viewing (but not for purchase).

How does this fit in with Apple’s strategy? Or JOOST’s? Or Google’s, for that matter? Who knows. I don’t know enough about any of this to comment intelligently. Is VC making some off the cuff remarks, or alluding to Google products in the works? Regardless, I do know that VC’s prognostications signal more pain for MSM owners, who will have to work harder for ad-dollars.

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